River Financial Corp

RVRFdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'

The thesis, from the filings

River Financial Corp earns about 34% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.96 and $59.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$71.8M1$88.9M2$132.3M3$170.1M4$197.6M4
Net income$25M5$27.9M6$26.7M7$31.3M8$42.1M8
Operating cash flow$41.8M9$47.5M10$24.4M11$36.1M12$53.7M12
Capital expenditure$5.71M13$5.54M14$7.88M15$3.68M16$8.48M16
Free cash flow (derived)$36.1M9$41.9M10$16.5M11$32.4M12$45.3M12
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares6.6M6.7M7.1M7.7M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$375
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.81
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $375 of net worth that earned you $53.77 and generated $57.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
34% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 27%FY23 35%FY24 45%FY25 46%

It earned about 34% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.96 and $59.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.4M
Earnings Power Value
$36.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$27.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.17
Base0.0%$59.17
Bull5.0%$73.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)