River Financial Corp
RVRFdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'cash'
River Financial Corp earns about 34% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.96 and $59.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.8M1 | $88.9M2 | $132.3M3 | $170.1M4 | $197.6M4 |
| Net income | $25M5 | $27.9M6 | $26.7M7 | $31.3M8 | $42.1M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $41.8M9 | $47.5M10 | $24.4M11 | $36.1M12 | $53.7M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.71M13 | $5.54M14 | $7.88M15 | $3.68M16 | $8.48M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $36.1M9 | $41.9M10 | $16.5M11 | $32.4M12 | $45.3M12 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 6.6M | 6.7M | 7.1M | 7.7M | 7.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $375 of net worth that earned you $53.77 and generated $57.81 of cash last year.
It earned about 34% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.96 and $59.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$32.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$32.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$27.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $59.17 |
| Base | 0.0% | $59.17 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $73.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007840 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030321 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036910 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-099933 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)