MeritValue

Revolution Medicines, Inc.

RVMDdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Revolution Medicines, Inc. earns about -39% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 161% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.4M1$35.4M2$11.6M3$03$03
Net income−$187.1M4−$248.7M5−$436.4M6−$600.1M6−$1.13B6
Operating cash flow−$147.2M7−$224.4M8−$350.6M9−$557.4M9−$897.7M9
Capital expenditure$6.53M10$10.8M11$7.73M12$10.3M12$16M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$153.7M7−$235.2M8−$358.3M9−$567.7M9−$913.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$108.5M13$161.4M14$696.1M15$543.1M15$383.7M15
Diluted shares72.8M80.6M113.1M167.7M190.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$85.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$59.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$48.06
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $85.8 of net worth that earned you −$59.5 and generated −$48.06 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-39% avg · 5y
FY21 -30%FY22 -38%FY23 -31%FY24 -28%FY25 -72%

It earned an average -39% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+161% shares · 5y

Share count is up 161% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020145 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027736 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071563 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020145 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027736 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071563 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020145 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027736 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071563 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020145 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027736 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071563 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020145 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027736 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071563 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)