MeritValue

RUSH ENTERPRISES INC TX

RUSHAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RUSH ENTERPRISES INC TX earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.55 and $133.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$6.78B1$7.57B2$7.45B2$7.06B2
Net income$392.1M3$391.4M4$347.1M5$304.2M5$263.8M5
Operating cash flow—$294.4M6$295.7M7$619.6M7$861.8M7
Capital expenditure—$243.1M8$368.9M9$433M9$399.8M9
Free cash flow (derived)—$51.3M6−$73.2M7$186.5M7$462M7
Total debt—$550.9M10$828M11$816.9M12$549.7M12
Cash & equivalents—$201M13$183.7M14$228.1M15$212.6M15
Diluted shares—85.7M83.7M81.8M80.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$272.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$32.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$68.1

10 shares is a claim on $272.93 of net worth that earned you $32.68 and generated $57.23 of cash last year, against $68.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY22 19%FY23 15%FY24 13%FY25 12%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.55 and $133.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$133.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$186.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$186.5M
Earnings Power Value
$44.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$347.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.83
Base20.0%$71.15
Bull20.0%$71.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-12 · accession 0001437749-23-004391 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005362 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005362 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004794 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005424 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)