MeritValue

Sunrun Inc.

RUNdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Sunrun Inc. earns about -11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.61B1$2.32B2$2.26B3$2.04B3$2.96B3
Net income−$79.4M4$173.4M5−$1.6B6−$2.85B6$449.9M6
Operating cash flow−$817.2M7−$848.8M8−$820.7M9−$766.2M9−$421.4M9
Capital expenditure$8.58M10$18.2M11$21M11$1.57M11—
Free cash flow (derived)−$825.8M7−$867M8−$841.7M9−$767.7M9—
Total debt$6.5B12$8.4B13$10.7B14$12.9B15$14.7B15
Cash & equivalents$850.4M16$953M17$987.8M17$947.4M17$1.24B17
Diluted shares205.1M219.2M216.6M222.2M264.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$118.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$555.67

10 shares is a claim on $118.45 of net worth that earned you $17.01 last year, against $555.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -5%FY23 -14%FY24 -24%FY25 -6%

It earned an average -11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 126% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$21.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012289 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012289 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012289 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-23-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001469367-24-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012289 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001469367-25-000039 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012289 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)