MeritValue

Rubico Inc.

RUBIdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Rubico Inc. earns about 14% on equity, but has diluted owners by 313% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1,142.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.5M1$24.2M1$23.5M1
Net income$6.63M2$5.94M2$2.65M2
Operating cash flow$11.8M3$10.5M3$11.3M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$151.6M4$164.6M4
Cash & equivalents$2.79M5$1.16M5$3.96M5
Diluted shares13,06513,06553,907

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8,495.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$490.66
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$30,527.39

10 shares is a claim on $8,495.74 of net worth that earned you $490.66 last year, against $30,527.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
14% avg · 3y
FY23 19%FY24 17%FY25 6%

It earned an average 14% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+313% shares · 3y

Share count is up 313% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1,142.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.94M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$968.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-010621 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-010621 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-010621 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-010621 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-010621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)