MeritValue

RTX Corp

RTXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RTX Corp earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $36.47 and $76.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.4B1$67.1B2$68.9B3$80.7B3$88.6B3
Net income$3.86B4$5.2B5$3.2B6$4.77B6$6.73B6
Operating cash flow$7.14B7$7.17B8$7.88B9$7.16B9$10.6B9
Capital expenditure$2.13B10$2.29B11$2.42B12$2.63B12$2.63B12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.01B7$4.88B8$5.47B9$4.53B9$7.94B9
Total debt$31.5B13$32.4B14$43.8B15$41.3B15$204M16
Cash & equivalents$7.83B17$6.22B18$6.59B19$5.58B19$7.44B19
Diluted shares1.51B1.49B1.44B1.34B1.36B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$481.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.5

10 shares is a claim on $481.02 of net worth that earned you $49.63 and generated $58.54 of cash last year, against $1.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 7%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 12%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 99% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $36.47 and $76.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$76.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$5.47B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$73.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.9%
  • fcfBase$5.47B
Earnings Power Value
$36.47
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$73.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $73.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%$62.93
Base3.9%$73.48
Bull8.9%$89.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000101829-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000101829-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000101829-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)