MeritValue

RTB Digital, Inc.

RTBdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RTB Digital, Inc. earns about -64% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $640.44 and $693.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.3M1$32.9M2$65.9M3$18.2M4$11.1M4
Net income−$35.3M5−$49.2M6−$53.1M7−$26.8M8−$17.5M8
Operating cash flow−$23M9−$9.34M10$33.2M11$21.2M12−$23M12
Capital expenditure$158,85813$162,00014$108,00015$47,00016$79,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$23.2M9−$9.51M10$33.1M11$21.1M12−$23.1M12
Total debt$118.6M17$123.5M18$31.9M19$34.8M19—
Cash & equivalents$89M20$14M21$12.2M22$2.6M23$7.43M23
Diluted shares42.8M5.0M5.3M191,262597,473

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$293.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$386.96
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.18 of net worth that earned you −$293.34 and generated −$386.96 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-64% avg · 5y
FY21 -43%FY22 -25%FY23 -103%FY24 -87%FY25 —

It earned about -64% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 5y

Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 71% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $640.44 and $693.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$693.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$640.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$21.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $640.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$518.06
Base5.0%$640.44
Bull10.0%$786.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001363 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001363 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001363 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001363 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000800 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000318 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001185185-25-000244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001185185-26-001363 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)