RISKIFIED LTD.
RSKDdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
RISKIFIED LTD. earns about -90% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 106% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.76 and $5.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $229.1M1 | $261.2M2 | $297.6M3 | $327.5M3 | $344.6M3 |
| Net income | −$179.4M4 | −$104.7M5 | −$59M6 | −$34.9M6 | −$27.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$20.3M7 | −$26.3M8 | $7.28M9 | $39.7M9 | $33.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $12.3M10 | $6.13M11 | $1.36M12 | $637,00012 | $810,00012 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$32.5M7 | −$32.4M8 | $5.92M9 | $39.1M9 | $33.1M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $418.1M13 | $188.7M14 | $440.8M15 | $371.1M15 | $162.2M15 |
| Diluted shares | 76.5M | 167.7M | 176.8M | 170.9M | 157.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $18.72 of net worth that earned you −$1.75 and generated $2.1 of cash last year.
It earned about -90% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 106% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.76 and $5.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.1M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $4.03 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.76 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $5.63 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001851112-24-000010 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001851112-25-000006 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001851112-26-000007 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001851112-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001851112-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001851112-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001851112-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001851112-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001851112-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001851112-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001851112-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001851112-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001851112-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001851112-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001851112-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)