Rush Street Interactive, Inc.

RSIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Rush Street Interactive, Inc. earns about -20% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 311% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.36 and $10.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$488.1M1$592.2M2$691.2M3$924.1M3$1.13B3
Net income−$19.5M4−$38.6M5−$18.3M6$2.39M6$33.3M6
Operating cash flow−$48.2M7−$60.3M8−$5.93M9$106.4M9$165M9
Capital expenditure$3.85M10$4.16M11$1.29M12$925,00012$767,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$52M7−$64.5M8−$7.22M9$105.5M9$164.2M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$281M13$179.7M14$168.3M15$229.2M16$336.3M16
Diluted shares57.4M63.5M68.5M88.4M236.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.96
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $6.24 of net worth that earned you $1.41 and generated $6.96 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -23%FY22 -69%FY23 -34%FY24 3%FY25 23%

It earned about -20% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+311% shares · 5y

Share count is up 311% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.36 and $10.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.81
Base5.0%$9.36
Bull10.0%$11.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001793659-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001793659-25-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001793659-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001793659-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001793659-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001793659-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001793659-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001793659-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001793659-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001793659-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001793659-25-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001793659-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001793659-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001793659-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001793659-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001793659-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)