MeritValue

REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.

RSGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC. earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.46 and $179.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.3B1$13.5B2$15B3$16B3$16.6B3
Net income$1.29B4$1.49B5$1.73B6$2.04B6$2.14B6
Operating cash flow$2.79B7$3.19B8$3.62B9$3.94B9$4.3B9
Capital expenditure$1.32B10$1.45B11$1.63B12$1.86B12$1.89B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.47B7$1.74B8$1.99B9$2.08B9$2.41B9
Total debt$9.68B13$11.9B14$12.8B15$12.8B16$13.7B17
Cash & equivalents$29M18$143M19$140M20$74M20$76M20
Diluted shares319.4M317.1M316.7M314.8M312.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$383.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$77.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$439.19

10 shares is a claim on $383.38 of net worth that earned you $68.53 and generated $77.17 of cash last year, against $439.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 8%FY23 9%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.46 and $179.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$179.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.3%
  • fcfBase$2.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$116.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.3%
  • fcfBase$2.08B
Earnings Power Value
$57.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.73B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.87
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $116.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$51.57
Base12.3%$116.43
Bull17.3%$151.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001060391-24-000142 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060391-25-000091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001060391-26-000094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)