MeritValue

REFLECT SCIENTIFIC, INC.

RSCFdata completeness 75%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

REFLECT SCIENTIFIC, INC. earns about 37% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$1.61M1$2.79M2$2.81M3$2.04M4$1.08M4
Net income−$195,5885$660,1156$939,0657$89,3968−$459,0288
Operating cash flow$335,8699−$25,21810$831,38211−$91,99712−$103,97612
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$555,15613$642,54213$1.47M13$1.38M14$1.28M14
Diluted shares84.7M84.7M85.5M85.4M85.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.05
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.22 of net worth that earned you −$0.05 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
37% avg · 5y
FY19 —FY20 92%FY21 105%FY22 10%FY23 -59%

It earned an average 37% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$89,396
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001548123-20-000035 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001548123-22-000034 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001548123-23-000056 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001548123-24-000032 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001548123-20-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001548123-22-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001548123-23-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001548123-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001548123-20-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001548123-22-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001548123-23-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001548123-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001548123-22-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001548123-24-000032 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)