MeritValue

REGAL REXNORD CORP

RRXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REGAL REXNORD CORP earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.72 and $365.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.81B1$5.22B1$6.25B1$6.03B2$5.93B2
Net income$229.6M3$488.9M4−$57.4M5$196.2M5$279.5M5
Operating cash flow$357.7M6$436.2M7$715.3M8$609.4M8$990.8M8
Capital expenditure$54.5M9$83.8M10$119.1M11$109.5M11$97.7M11
Free cash flow (derived)$303.2M6$352.4M7$596.2M8$499.9M8$893.1M8
Total debt$3.84B12$4.05B13$12.8B14$11B15$9.61B15
Cash & equivalents$672.8M16$688.5M17$574M17$393.5M18$521.7M18
Diluted shares47.7M67.1M66.3M66.7M66.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,027.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$134.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,442.61

10 shares is a claim on $1,027.64 of net worth that earned you $41.97 and generated $134.1 of cash last year, against $1,442.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 3%FY22 6%FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 2%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 150% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.72 and $365.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$365.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$596.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$146.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$596.2M
Earnings Power Value
$35.72
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$229.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$98.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $146.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$8.52
Base19.2%$146.08
Bull20.0%$155.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000082811-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000082811-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000082811-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000082811-25-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000082811-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000082811-25-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000082811-26-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)