MeritValue

Red Rock Resorts, Inc.

RRRdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.62B1$1.66B2$1.72B3$1.94B3$2.01B3
Net income$241.9M4$205.5M5$176M6$154.1M6$188.1M6
Operating cash flow$610M7$542.2M8$494.3M9$548.3M9$609.5M9
Capital expenditure$61.3M10$328.6M11$699.5M12$283.9M12$319M12
Free cash flow (derived)$548.7M7$213.6M8−$205.2M9$264.4M9$290.5M9
Total debt$5.71B13$5.97B14$6.66B15$6.81B16$6.79B16
Cash & equivalents$275.3M17$117.3M17$137.6M18$164.4M19$142.5M19
Diluted shares116.5M104.7M103.2M103.7M102.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$661.97

10 shares is a claim on $20.31 of net worth that earned you $18.33 and generated $28.32 of cash last year, against $661.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 9%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.4%
  • fcfBase$264.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.4%
  • fcfBase$264.4M
Earnings Power Value
$19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$188.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653653-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653653-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001653653-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)