RED RIVER BANCSHARES INC

RRBIdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

RED RIVER BANCSHARES INC earns about 12% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.9 and $106.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$77.3M1$94.4M2$118.6M3$137.2M3$149.9M3
Net income$33M4$36.9M5$34.9M6$34.2M6$42.8M6
Operating cash flow$62.3M7$45.9M8$40.1M9$38.3M9$44.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.43M10$8.44M11$4.92M12$4.88M12$2.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$58.8M7$37.4M8$35.2M9$33.4M9$42.2M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$784.9M13$278.4M14$305.4M15$269M16$213.4M16
Diluted shares7.3M7.2M7.2M6.9M6.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$544.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.95
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $544.58 of net worth that earned you $63.78 and generated $62.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 14%FY23 11%FY24 11%FY25 12%

It earned about 12% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.9 and $106.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$106.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$35.2M
Earnings Power Value
$53.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$88.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $106.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$106.82
Base0.0%$106.82
Bull5.0%$124.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071236-24-000035 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071236-25-000026 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071236-26-000027 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071236-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071236-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071236-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071236-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071236-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071236-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071236-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071236-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071236-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071236-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071236-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071236-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001071236-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)