MeritValue

RAPID MICRO BIOSYSTEMS, INC.

RPIDdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RAPID MICRO BIOSYSTEMS, INC. earns about -77% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 126% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23.2M1$17.1M2$22.5M3$28.1M4$33.6M4
Net income−$73.5M5−$60.8M6−$52.5M7−$46.9M8−$47.1M8
Operating cash flow−$55M9−$58.5M10−$45.1M11−$44.2M12−$31.1M12
Capital expenditure$3.22M13$6.74M14$1.85M15$1.37M16$850,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$58.2M9−$65.3M10−$46.9M11−$45.5M12−$31.9M12
Total debt$017$017—$018$18.9M18
Cash & equivalents$178.4M19$27.1M20$24.3M21$16.9M22$20M22
Diluted shares19.8M42.5M43.0M43.6M44.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.23

10 shares is a claim on $7.43 of net worth that earned you −$10.55 and generated −$7.14 of cash last year, against $4.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-77% avg · 5y
FY21 -131%FY22 -34%FY23 -41%FY24 -63%FY25 -116%

It earned an average -77% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+126% shares · 5y

Share count is up 126% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001380106-24-000073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001380106-25-000058 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001380106-24-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001380106-25-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001380106-24-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001380106-25-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001380106-24-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001380106-25-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001380106-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001380106-24-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001380106-25-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001380106-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)