MeritValue

Ridgepost Capital, Inc.

RPCdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ridgepost Capital, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.64 and $2.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$150.5M1$198.4M2$241.7M3$296.4M3$297.3M3
Net income$9.17M4$29.2M5−$7.13M6$18.7M6$19.5M6
Operating cash flow$49M7$61.7M8$47.7M9$101M9$23M9
Capital expenditure$129,00010$1.3M11$1.19M12$4.38M12$4.88M12
Free cash flow (derived)$48.9M7$60.4M8$46.5M9$96.6M9$18.1M9
Total debt$212.5M13$289.2M14$289.8M15$319.8M16$373.2M16
Cash & equivalents$40.9M17$20M18$30.5M19$67.5M19$28.2M19
Diluted shares112.3M121.7M116.1M120.4M118.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.53
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.61

10 shares is a claim on $34.17 of net worth that earned you $1.65 and generated $1.53 of cash last year, against $31.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 2%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 76% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.64 and $2.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$46.5M
Earnings Power Value
$1.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.7
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.7
Base0.0%$2.7
Bull5.0%$4.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010038 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030461 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081484 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)