MeritValue

ROSS STORES, INC.

ROSTdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROSS STORES, INC. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.88 and $211.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$18.9B1$18.7B2$20.4B3$21.1B3$22.8B3
Net income$1.72B4$1.51B5$1.87B6$2.09B6$2.15B6
Operating cash flow$1.74B7$1.69B8$2.51B9$2.36B9$3.03B9
Capital expenditure$557.8M10$654.1M11$762.8M12$720.1M12$819.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.18B7$1.04B8$1.75B9$1.64B9$2.21B9
Total debt$4.9B13$4.91B14$4.92B15$4.43B16$3.04B16
Cash & equivalents$4.92B17$4.55B18$4.87B19$4.73B19$4.59B19
Diluted shares353.7M345.2M337.4M331.0M324.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$66.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$68.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$93.56

10 shares is a claim on $190.73 of net worth that earned you $66.12 and generated $68.05 of cash last year, against $93.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY22 41%FY23 32%FY24 41%FY25 43%FY26 49%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.88 and $211.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$211.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.0%
  • fcfBase$1.75B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$144.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.0%
  • fcfBase$1.75B
Earnings Power Value
$59.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.87B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.26
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $144.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$81.95
Base14.0%$144.08
Bull19.0%$174.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000745732-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000745732-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000745732-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)