MeritValue

ROLLINS INC

ROLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROLLINS INC earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.31 and $38.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.42B1$2.7B2$3.07B3$3.39B3$3.76B3
Net income$356.6M4$368.6M5$435M6$466.4M6$526.7M6
Operating cash flow$401.8M7$465.9M8$528.4M9$607.7M9$678.1M9
Capital expenditure$27.2M10$30.6M11$32.5M12$27.6M12$28.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$374.6M7$435.3M8$495.9M9$580.1M9$650M9
Total debt———$395.3M13$609.8M13
Cash & equivalents$105.3M14$95.3M15$103.8M16$89.6M17$100M17
Diluted shares492.1M492.4M490.1M484.3M484.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.6

10 shares is a claim on $28.39 of net worth that earned you $10.88 and generated $13.43 of cash last year, against $12.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 31%FY23 40%FY24 29%FY25 28%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 54% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.31 and $38.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$580.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$580.1M
Earnings Power Value
$9.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$435M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.07
Base12.0%$27.44
Bull17.0%$33.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084839-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084839-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084839-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084839-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084839-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084839-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084839-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084839-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084839-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084839-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084839-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000084839-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)