MeritValue

ROKU, INC

ROKUdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROKU, INC earns about -44% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.53 and $94.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.76B1$3.13B2$3.48B3$4.11B3$4.74B3
Net income$242.4M4−$498M5−$709.6M6−$129.4M6$88.4M6
Operating cash flow$228.1M7$11.8M8$255.9M9$218M9$483.7M9
Capital expenditure$40M10$161.7M11$82.6M12$5.06M12$5.28M12
Free cash flow (derived)$188M7−$149.9M8$173.2M9$213M9$478.4M9
Total debt$89.9M13$80M13$014——
Cash & equivalents$2.15B15$1.96B16$2.03B17$2.16B17$1.59B17
Diluted shares141.7M137.7M141.6M144.6M150.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$176.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.86
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.7
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $176.13 of net worth that earned you $5.86 and generated $31.7 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-44% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 -51%FY23 -184%FY24 -29%FY25 8%

It earned about -44% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.53 and $94.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$94.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$15.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.68
Base20.0%$56.53
Bull20.0%$56.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428439-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428439-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428439-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428439-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001428439-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001428439-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)