MeritValue

ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC

ROKdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.32 and $205.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7B1$7.76B2$9.06B3$8.26B3$8.34B3
Net income$1.36B4$932.2M5$1.39B6$953M6$869M6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$823.1M8$1.37B9$864M9$1.54B9
Capital expenditure$120.3M10$141.1M10$160.5M10$225M11$186M11
Free cash flow (derived)$1.14B7$682M8$1.21B9$639M9$1.36B9
Total debt$3.98B12$968.4M13$103.3M14$3.64B15$3.22B15
Cash & equivalents$662.2M16$490.7M17$1.07B18$471M18$468M18
Diluted shares117.1M116.7M115.6M114.5M113.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$323.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$120.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$285.06

10 shares is a claim on $323.08 of net worth that earned you $76.83 and generated $120.07 of cash last year, against $285.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 32%FY23 53%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.32 and $205.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$205.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$177.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$1.21B
Earnings Power Value
$87.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$953M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$74.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $177.94
The three cases
Bear0.0%$128.93
Base6.4%$177.94
Bull11.4%$224.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001024478-24-000107 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001024478-24-000107 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001024478-24-000107 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-21-000083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001024478-24-000107 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001024478-23-000126 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001024478-24-000107 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001024478-25-000116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)