MeritValue

ROGERS CORP

ROGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROGERS CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.23 and $121.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$932.9M1$971.2M2$908.4M3$830.1M3$810.8M3
Net income$108.1M4$116.6M5$56.6M6$26.1M6−$61.8M6
Operating cash flow$124.4M7$129.5M8$131.4M9$127.1M9$101.2M9
Capital expenditure$71.1M10$116.8M11$57M12$56.1M12$30.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.3M7$12.7M8$74.4M9$71M9$71.1M9
Total debt$190M13$215M14$30M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$232.3M16$235.9M17$131.7M18$159.8M19$197M19
Diluted shares18.9M19.0M18.7M18.6M18.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$656.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$33.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.07
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $656.98 of net worth that earned you −$33.96 and generated $39.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 9%FY23 4%FY24 2%FY25 -4%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.23 and $121.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$121.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$71.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$96.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$71.1M
Earnings Power Value
$32.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $96.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.64
Base10.1%$96.6
Bull15.1%$115.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000084748-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000084748-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000084748-25-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000084748-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)