MeritValue

GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC.

ROCKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.48 and $315.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.34B1$1.39B2$1.05B3$1.02B3$1.14B3
Net income$75.6M4$82.4M5$110.5M6$137.3M6−$44.4M6
Operating cash flow$23.1M7$102.7M8$218.5M9$174.3M9$167M9
Capital expenditure$17.7M10$20.1M11$13.9M12$17.4M12$46.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.37M7$82.6M8$204.6M9$156.9M9$120.6M9
Total debt$47.6M13$177.5M14$014$015$015
Cash & equivalents$12.8M16$17.6M17$99.4M18$269.5M19$115.7M19
Diluted shares33.1M32.2M30.8M30.8M30.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$316.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.8
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $316.97 of net worth that earned you −$14.8 and generated $40.22 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 11%FY24 18%FY25 12%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.48 and $315.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$315.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$156.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$174.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$156.9M
Earnings Power Value
$28.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $174.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$78.62
Base20.0%$174.46
Bull20.0%$174.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000912562-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000912562-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000912562-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000912562-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)