MeritValue

Renalytix plc

RNLXYdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Renalytix plc earns about -228% on equity, but has diluted owners by 83% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$01$1.49M1$2.97M2$100,0003$2.29M4
Net income−$9.84M5−$35.3M5−$45.3M6−$45.6M7−$33.5M7
Operating cash flow−$9.52M8−$28.4M8−$45.9M9−$34.1M10−$30.1M10
Capital expenditure$804,00011$773,00011$557,00012$012—
Free cash flow (derived)−$10.3M8−$29.2M8−$46.5M9−$34.1M10—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.3M13$65.1M14$41.3M15$24.7M16$4.68M16
Diluted shares59.1M71.5M73.8M82.2M108.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.09
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.73 of net worth that earned you −$3.09 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-228% avg · 5y
FY20 -62%FY21 -49%FY22 -148%FY23 -655%FY24 —

It earned an average -228% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+83% shares · 5y

Share count is up 83% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-020618 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-110315 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-020618 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-110315 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-020618 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-110315 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-020618 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001193125-22-208827 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-22-020618 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-050231 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-110315 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)