Ranger Energy Services, Inc.

RNGRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ranger Energy Services, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 67% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.9 and $132.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$293.1M1$608.5M2$636.6M3$571.1M4$546.9M4
Net income$8.6M5$15.1M6$23.8M7$18.4M8$12.3M8
Operating cash flow−$39.4M9$44.5M10$90.8M11$84.5M12$69M12
Capital expenditure$5.6M13$13.8M14$36.5M15$34.1M16$26.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$45M9$30.7M10$54.3M11$50.4M12$42.9M12
Total debt$125M17$36.8M18$200,00019$019$3.5M20
Cash & equivalents$600,00021$3.7M22$15.7M23$40.9M24$10.3M24
Diluted shares13.6M23.4M25.0M22.9M22.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.54

10 shares is a claim on $132.35 of net worth that earned you $5.42 and generated $18.92 of cash last year, against $1.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 7%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 4%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+67% shares · 5y

Share count is up 67% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.9 and $132.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$132.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$50.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$50.4M
Earnings Power Value
$6.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.06
Base20.0%$72.77
Bull20.0%$72.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001699039-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001699039-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001699039-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015248 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)