MeritValue

RMR GROUP INC.

RMRdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

RMR GROUP INC. earns about 186% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 47% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.17 and $232.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$607.2M1$200M2$236.2M3$193.9M3$182.7M3
Net income$35.7M4$34M5$57.1M6$23.1M6$17.6M6
Operating cash flow$71.8M7$101.3M8$109.2M9$61.4M9$75.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.14M10$1.12M11$3.98M11$3.87M11—
Free cash flow (derived)$70.7M7$100.1M8$105.2M9$57.5M9—
Total debt————$44.6M12
Cash & equivalents$159.8M13$189.1M14$268M14$141.6M14$62.3M15
Diluted shares31.3M31.3M16.4M16.5M16.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$136.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.57
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$26.79

10 shares is a claim on $136.78 of net worth that earned you $10.57 last year, against $26.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
186% avg · 5y
FY21 230%FY22 442%FY23 —FY24 55%FY25 18%

It earned about 186% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−47% shares · 5y

Share count is down 47% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.17 and $232.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$232.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$100.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$156.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.1%
  • fcfBase$100.1M
Earnings Power Value
$21.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $156.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$87.04
Base14.1%$156.77
Bull19.1%$190.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001644378-23-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001644378-24-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001644378-25-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001644378-23-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001644378-24-000042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001644378-25-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001644378-23-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001644378-24-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001644378-25-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001644378-23-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001644378-24-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001644378-25-000043 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001644378-22-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001644378-24-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001644378-25-000043 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)