MeritValue

RAMBUS INC

RMBSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

RAMBUS INC earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.06 and $28.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$328.3M1$454.8M2$461.1M3$556.6M3$707.6M3
Net income$18.3M4−$14.3M5$333.9M6$179.8M6$230.5M6
Operating cash flow$209.2M7$230.4M8$195.8M9$230.6M9$360M9
Capital expenditure$13.8M10$17.5M11$23.2M12$30.7M12$26.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$195.4M7$212.9M8$172.5M9$199.9M9$333.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$107.9M13$125.3M14$94.8M15$99.8M16$182.8M16
Diluted shares114.9M109.5M110.9M109.0M109.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$124.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $124.91 of net worth that earned you $21.1 and generated $30.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -1%FY23 20%FY24 18%FY25 20%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.06 and $28.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$199.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$199.9M
Earnings Power Value
$17.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$179.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.82
Base0.8%$28.71
Bull5.8%$35.21

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000917273-24-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000917273-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057101 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000917273-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000917273-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057101 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000917273-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000917273-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000917273-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000917273-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057101 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000917273-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000917273-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000917273-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)