MeritValue

Regional Management Corp.

RMdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Regional Management Corp. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.1 and $742.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$428.4M1$507.2M2$551.4M3$588.5M3$645.6M3
Net income$88.7M4$51.2M5$16M6$41.2M6$44.4M6
Operating cash flow$189M7$224.3M8$249.2M9$268.9M9$309.1M9
Capital expenditure$3.59M10$5.87M11$4.69M12$5.05M12$4.76M12
Free cash flow (derived)$185.4M7$218.5M8$244.5M9$263.9M9$304.3M9
Total debt$1.1B13$1.35B14$1.4B15$1.47B16$1.64B16
Cash & equivalents$149.2M17$131.8M18$128.7M18$135.6M18$98M18
Diluted shares10.6M9.7M9.6M10.0M10.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$373.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$304.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,644.8

10 shares is a claim on $373.69 of net worth that earned you $44.48 and generated $304.79 of cash last year, against $1,644.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 3%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 50% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.1 and $742.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$742.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$263.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$485.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$263.9M
Earnings Power Value
$46.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $485.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$222.95
Base12.5%$485.42
Bull17.5%$626.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018892 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018892 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018892 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018892 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002442 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018892 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024903 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-061549 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)