RLX Technology Inc.
RLXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on fileRLX Technology Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.12 and $1.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.34B1 | $773.2M2 | $223.4M3 | $376.6M4 | $566.1M5 |
| Net income | $317.7M6 | $209M7 | $75.3M8 | $75.6M9 | $131.8M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $282.4M11 | $70.6M12 | $28M13 | $117M14 | $157.9M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $20.5M16 | $5.6M17 | $3.98M18 | $1.38M19 | $16.8M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $261.9M11 | $65M12 | $24M13 | $115.7M14 | $141.1M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $5.48M21 | $13.2M22 |
| Cash & equivalents | $817.4M23 | $183.9M24 | $336.7M25 | $766.3M26 | $767.5M27 |
| Diluted shares | 1.41B | 1.33B | 1.34B | 1.29B | 1.22B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $18.27 of net worth that earned you $1.08 and generated $1.15 of cash last year, against $0.11 of debt.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 140% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.12 and $1.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$115.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$115.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$131.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.97 |
| Base | 0.0% | $1.97 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $2.29 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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