RLX Technology Inc.

RLXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RLX Technology Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.12 and $1.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.34B1$773.2M2$223.4M3$376.6M4$566.1M5
Net income$317.7M6$209M7$75.3M8$75.6M9$131.8M10
Operating cash flow$282.4M11$70.6M12$28M13$117M14$157.9M15
Capital expenditure$20.5M16$5.6M17$3.98M18$1.38M19$16.8M20
Free cash flow (derived)$261.9M11$65M12$24M13$115.7M14$141.1M15
Total debt$5.48M21$13.2M22
Cash & equivalents$817.4M23$183.9M24$336.7M25$766.3M26$767.5M27
Diluted shares1.41B1.33B1.34B1.29B1.22B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$18.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.11

10 shares is a claim on $18.27 of net worth that earned you $1.08 and generated $1.15 of cash last year, against $0.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 10%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 9%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 140% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.12 and $1.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$115.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$115.7M
Earnings Power Value
$1.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$131.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.97
Base0.0%$1.97
Bull5.0%$2.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052805 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047999 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049421 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052805 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047999 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049421 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052805 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047999 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049421 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052805 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047999 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049421 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052805 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-047999 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049421 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000790 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047278 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)