MeritValue

RLJ Lodging Trust

RLJdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RLJ Lodging Trust earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.9 and $7.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$785.7M1$1.19B2$1.33B3$1.37B3$1.35B3
Net income−$305.2M4$41.9M5$76.4M6$68M6$28.5M6
Operating cash flow$43M7$256.5M8$315.1M9$285.4M9$243.8M9
Capital expenditure$48.3M10$124.3M11$132.3M12$136.5M12$126.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.3M7$132.2M8$182.8M9$148.9M9$117.4M9
Total debt$2.41B13$2.22B14$2.22B15$2.22B16$2.2B16
Cash & equivalents$665.3M17$481.3M18$516.7M19$409.8M19$410.2M19
Diluted shares164.0M162.3M156.6M153.5M149.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$144.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$146.57

10 shares is a claim on $144.72 of net worth that earned you $1.9 and generated $7.83 of cash last year, against $146.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 3%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 3%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.9 and $7.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$148.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$148.9M
Earnings Power Value
$2.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$41.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.27
Base5.0%$5.71
Bull10.0%$9.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001511337-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001511337-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001511337-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)