MeritValue

Relay Therapeutics, Inc.

RLAYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Relay Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -42% on equity, but has diluted owners by 80% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.03M1$1.38M2$25.5M3$10M3$15.4M3
Net income−$363.9M4−$290.5M5−$342M6−$337.7M6−$276.5M6
Operating cash flow−$74.4M7−$229.5M8−$300.3M9−$249.1M9−$235.5M9
Capital expenditure$3.47M10$9.06M11$4.13M12$2.02M12$410,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$77.9M7−$238.6M8−$304.4M9−$251.1M9−$235.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$280.1M13$151.8M14$143.7M15$124.3M16$84M16
Diluted shares95.1M112.2M122.6M142.9M171.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$33.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.11
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13.75
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $33.05 of net worth that earned you −$16.11 and generated −$13.75 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-42% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -31%FY23 -45%FY24 -43%FY25 -49%

It earned an average -42% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+80% shares · 5y

Share count is up 80% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018797 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027756 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076739 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018797 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027756 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076739 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018797 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027756 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076739 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018797 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027756 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076739 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018797 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027756 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076739 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)