MeritValue

Rocket Companies, Inc.

RKTdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Rocket Companies, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$308.2M1$46.4M2−$16M3$29M3−$68M3
Operating cash flow$7.74B4$10.8B5$111M6−$2.63B6−$3.93B6
Capital expenditure$118.3M7$93.1M8$60M9$68M9$91M9
Free cash flow (derived)$7.63B4$10.7B5$51M6−$2.7B6−$4.02B6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.13B10$722.3M11$1.11B12$1.27B12$2.7B12
Diluted shares1.99B1.97B1.98B141.0M1.32B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$173.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.51
Free cash flow it threw off
−$30.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $173.16 of net worth that earned you −$0.51 and generated −$30.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 82%FY22 11%FY23 -3%FY24 9%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805284-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805284-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013283 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805284-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805284-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013283 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805284-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805284-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013283 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001805284-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001805284-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013283 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)