MeritValue

Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.

RKDAdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. earns about -581% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 157% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.78M1$7.42M2$4.45M3$5.05M4$4.86M4
Net income−$14.7M5−$15.4M6−$14M7−$7.04M8−$2.34M8
Operating cash flow−$25.9M9−$14M10−$15.3M11−$9.63M12−$4.74M12
Capital expenditure$1.01M13$72,00014$5,00015$16,00016$016
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.9M9−$14M10−$15.3M11−$9.64M12−$4.74M12
Total debt$017————
Cash & equivalents$28.7M18$20.6M19$6.52M20$4.24M21$259,00021
Diluted shares532,016599,3891.2M1.4M1.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$34.64
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $30.26 of net worth that earned you −$17.1 and generated −$34.64 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-581% avg · 5y
FY21 -529%FY22 -2137%FY23 -58%FY24 -141%FY25 -43%

It earned an average -581% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+157% shares · 5y

Share count is up 157% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038176 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126238 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038176 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126238 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038176 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126238 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038176 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126238 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-005253 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-011019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-038176 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-044487 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126238 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)