MeritValue

RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC

RJFdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC earns about 169% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.23 and $189.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.91B1$11.3B2$13B3$14.9B3$15.9B3
Net income$1.4B4$1.51B5$1.74B6$2.07B6$2.14B6
Operating cash flow$6.65B7$72M8−$3.51B9$2.16B9$2.43B9
Capital expenditure$74M10$91M11$173M12$205M12$188M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.57B7−$19M8−$3.69B9$1.95B9$2.25B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.2B13$6.18B14$9.31B15$11B15$11.4B15
Diluted shares211.2M215.3M216.9M212.3M206.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$605.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$103.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $605.18 of net worth that earned you $103.34 and generated $108.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
169% avg · 5y
FY21 146%FY22 53%FY23 309%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 169% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.23 and $189.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$179.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.95B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$189.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.95B
Earnings Power Value
$87.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.74B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$118.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $189.98
The three cases
Bear0.0%$189.98
Base0.0%$189.98
Bull5.0%$222.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000720005-23-000079 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000720005-24-000069 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000720005-25-000093 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000720005-23-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000720005-24-000069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000720005-25-000093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000720005-23-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000720005-24-000069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000720005-25-000093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000720005-23-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000720005-24-000069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000720005-25-000093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000720005-23-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000720005-24-000069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000720005-25-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)