MeritValue

REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC.

RJETdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $13.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$498.1M1$1.11B2$476.4M1$1.17B2$1.35B2
Net income−$120.1M3$54.8M4−$91M3$64.6M4$76.2M4
Operating cash flow−$24.1M5$329.2M6$34.2M5$226.1M6$322M6
Capital expenditure$36.6M7$378.1M8$20.3M7$226.7M8$396.9M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$60.7M5−$48.9M6$13.9M5−$600,0006−$74.9M6
Total debt$1.06B9—$620.5M9—$1.03B10
Cash & equivalents$32.9M11$113.5M12$15.6M11$110.5M13$134.3M13
Diluted shares39.5M39.7M41.1M39.8M40.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$326.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$18.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$252.2

10 shares is a claim on $326.75 of net worth that earned you $18.74 and generated −$18.42 of cash last year, against $252.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY23 -5%FY23 6%FY24 -10%FY24 6%FY25 3%

It earned an average 0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$13.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$54.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-25-070705 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-019614 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)