MeritValue

Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE

RIVNdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE earns about -73% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 481% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55M1$1.66B2$4.43B3$4.97B3$5.39B3
Net income−$4.69B4−$6.75B5−$5.43B6−$4.75B6−$3.65B6
Operating cash flow−$2.62B7−$5.05B8−$4.87B9−$1.72B9−$779M9
Capital expenditure$1.79B10$1.37B11$1.03B12$1.14B12$1.71B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.42B7−$6.42B8−$5.89B9−$2.86B9−$2.49B9
Total debt$2.45B13$2.46B14$8.86B15$4.44B16$4.44B16
Cash & equivalents$18.1B17$11.6B18$7.86B19$5.29B20$3.58B20
Diluted shares204.0M913.0M947.0M1.01B1.19B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.44

10 shares is a claim on $38.74 of net worth that earned you −$30.74 and generated −$20.99 of cash last year, against $37.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-73% avg · 5y
FY21 -96%FY22 -112%FY23 -41%FY24 -66%FY25 -52%

It earned an average -73% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+481% shares · 5y

Share count is up 481% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 81% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001874178-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001874178-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001874178-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001874178-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)