MeritValue

Rithm Capital Corp.

RITMdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Rithm Capital Corp. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.73B1$4.92B1$3.68B1$4.92B2$4.59B2
Net income$805.6M3$983.3M4$622.3M5$931.5M5$697.1M5
Operating cash flow$3.43B6$5.75B7$693.6M8−$2.19B8−$1.29B8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$29.8B9$22B10$27B11$32.6B12$35.4B13
Cash & equivalents$1.33B14$1.34B15$1.29B16$1.46B17$1.85B17
Diluted shares467.7M481.6M483.7M499.6M546.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$154.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.76
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$649.04

10 shares is a claim on $154.38 of net worth that earned you $12.76 last year, against $649.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$15.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$805.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556593-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001556593-26-000012 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556593-24-000027 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556593-25-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556593-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556593-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556593-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556593-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556593-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556593-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556593-24-000027 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001556593-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001556593-26-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001556593-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001556593-24-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001556593-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001556593-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)