MeritValue

RIO TINTO PLC

RIOdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

RIO TINTO PLC earns about 23% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $95.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$63.5B1$55.6B2$54B3$53.7B3$57.6B3
Net income$21.1B4$12.4B5$10.1B6$11.6B6$9.97B6
Operating cash flow$25.3B7$16.1B8$15.2B9$15.6B9$16.8B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$13.5B10$11.1B11$13B12$12.4B13$21.9B13
Cash & equivalents$12.8B14$6.78B15$9.67B16$8.5B17$8.87B17
Diluted shares1.26B1.26B1.26B1.26B1.26B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$495.24
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.35
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$174.61

10 shares is a claim on $495.24 of net worth that earned you $79.35 last year, against $174.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 43%FY22 24%FY23 17%FY24 20%FY25 14%

It earned an average 23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 62% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$95.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.6B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006512 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006642 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009531 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006512 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006642 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009531 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006512 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006642 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009531 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009794 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006512 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006642 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009531 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009794 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006512 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006642 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009531 (CashAndCashEquivalents)