MeritValue

Transocean Ltd.

RIGdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Transocean Ltd. earns about -7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.2 and $7.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.56B1$2.58B2$2.83B3$3.52B3$3.97B3
Net income−$592M4−$621M5−$954M6−$512M6−$2.92B6
Operating cash flow$575M7$448M8$164M9$447M9$749M9
Capital expenditure$208M10$717M11$427M12$254M12$123M12
Free cash flow (derived)$367M7−$269M8−$263M9$193M9$626M9
Total debt$513M13$719M14$370M15$686M16$445M16
Cash & equivalents$976M17$683M18$762M19$560M20$620M20
Diluted shares637.0M699.0M768.0M925.0M960.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$84.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$4.64

10 shares is a claim on $84.46 of net worth that earned you −$30.36 and generated $6.52 of cash last year, against $4.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -0%FY23 -2%FY24 -4%FY25 -29%

It earned about -7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.2 and $7.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.2%
  • fcfBase$193M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.2%
  • fcfBase$193M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.05
Base13.2%$5.2
Bull18.2%$6.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-23-000029 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001451505-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001451505-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001451505-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001451505-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)