MeritValue

RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC.

RICKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RCI HOSPITALITY HOLDINGS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.3 and $34.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$195.3M1$267.6M2$293.8M3$295.6M3$279.4M3
Net income$30.3M4$46M5$29.2M6$3.01M6$10.8M6
Operating cash flow$42M7$64.5M8$59.1M9$55.9M9$49.4M9
Capital expenditure$13.5M10$24M10$40.4M10$24.6M11$14.5M11
Free cash flow (derived)$28.5M7$40.5M8$18.7M9$31.3M9$34.9M9
Total debt$252M12$408.3M13$482.4M14$479.3M15$474M15
Cash & equivalents$35.7M16$36M17$21M18$32.4M19$33.7M19
Diluted shares9.0M9.4M9.3M9.3M8.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$295.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$537.22

10 shares is a claim on $295.94 of net worth that earned you $12.25 and generated $39.55 of cash last year, against $537.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 9%FY23 6%FY24 0%FY25 2%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 88% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.3 and $34.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$31.3M
Earnings Power Value
$34.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$29.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.76
Base3.2%$8.3
Bull8.2%$22.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-051384 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-051384 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-051384 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-22-031907 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-051384 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-22-031907 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001628280-23-041580 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001628280-24-051384 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-26-019804 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)