Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc.
RHPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileRyman Hospitality Properties, Inc. earns about 70% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.25 and $217.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $939.4M1 | $1.81B2 | $2.16B3 | $2.34B3 | $2.58B3 |
| Net income | −$194.8M4 | $134.9M5 | $311.2M6 | $271.6M6 | $243.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $111.3M7 | $419.9M8 | $557.1M9 | $576.5M9 | $590.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $77.4M10 | $89.5M11 | $206.8M12 | $407.9M12 | $358.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $33.8M7 | $330.4M8 | $350.3M9 | $168.6M9 | $232.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $140.7M13 | $334.2M14 | $591.8M15 | $477.7M15 | $471.4M15 |
| Diluted shares | 55.0M | 55.4M | 58.1M | 63.6M | 66.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $113.73 of net worth that earned you $36.91 and generated $35.23 of cash last year.
It earned about 70% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.25 and $217.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$232.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$232.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$243.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $57.49 |
| Base | 20.0% | $122.02 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $122.02 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001613 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001286 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001613 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001286 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019035 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001613 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001286 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001613 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001286 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019035 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001613 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001286 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)