MeritValue

Rigetti Computing, Inc.

RGTIdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Rigetti Computing, Inc. earns about -99% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1227% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.2M1$13.1M2$12M3$10.8M4$7.09M4
Net income−$38.2M5−$71.5M6−$75.1M7−$201M8−$216.2M8
Operating cash flow−$29M9−$62.7M10−$50.6M11−$50.6M12−$58.5M12
Capital expenditure$7.01M13$22.7M14$9.06M15$11.1M16$18.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$36.1M9−$85.4M10−$59.6M11−$61.7M12−$77.2M12
Total debt$575,00017$28.9M18$22.1M19$019—
Cash & equivalents$11.7M20$57.9M21$21.4M22$67.7M23$44.9M23
Diluted shares23.3M102.3M132.0M184.7M309.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$17.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.98
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.49
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $17.63 of net worth that earned you −$6.98 and generated −$2.49 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-99% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -43%FY23 -50%FY24 -270%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -99% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1227% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1227% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023454 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023454 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023454 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080486 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003234 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023454 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)