MeritValue

STURM RUGER & CO INC

RGRdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

STURM RUGER & CO INC earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.36 and $31.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$730.7M1$595.8M2$543.8M3$535.6M3$546.1M3
Net income$155.9M4$88.3M5$48.2M6$30.6M6−$4.39M6
Operating cash flow$172.3M7$77.2M8$33.9M9$55.5M9$54.3M9
Capital expenditure$28.8M10$27.7M11$15.8M12$20.8M12$15.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$143.6M7$49.5M8$18.1M9$34.7M9$38.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$21M13$65.2M14$15.2M15$10M16$18.5M16
Diluted shares17.8M17.8M17.8M17.3M16.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$174.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.69
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $174.77 of net worth that earned you −$2.7 and generated $23.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 46%FY22 35%FY23 15%FY24 10%FY25 -2%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.36 and $31.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$34.7M
Earnings Power Value
$30.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.66
Base0.0%$31.66
Bull5.0%$39.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000243 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000197 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000243 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000239 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000197 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)