MeritValue

ROYAL GOLD INC

RGLDdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

ROYAL GOLD INC earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $40.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$653.6M1$603.2M2$605.7M3$719.4M3$1.03B3
Net income$274M4$239M5$239.4M6$332M6$466.3M6
Operating cash flow$461.9M7$417.3M8$415.8M9$529.5M9$704.8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$571.6M10$246M11$012$895.4M12
Cash & equivalents$143.6M13$118.6M14$104.2M15$195.5M16$233.7M16
Diluted shares65.6M65.7M65.7M65.8M69.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,028.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.03
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$128.73

10 shares is a claim on $1,028.9 of net worth that earned you $67.03 last year, against $128.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 8%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 6%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$40.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$274M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$124.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001391 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085535-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085535-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001391 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085535-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085535-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001391 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085535-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085535-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001192 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085535-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000085535-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001391 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001192 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085535-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000085535-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)