MeritValue

REPLIGEN CORP

RGENdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REPLIGEN CORP earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8,958 and $99,432.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$670.5M1$801.5M2$632.4M3$634.4M3$738.3M3
Net income$128.3M4$186M5$35.6M6−$25.5M6$48.9M6
Operating cash flow$119M7$172.1M8$113.9M9$175.4M9$117.4M9
Capital expenditure$67.1M10$84.8M11$36.2M12$25.7M12$23.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$51.9M7$87.2M8$77.7M9$149.7M9$93.9M9
Total debt———$525.6M13$542.2M13
Cash & equivalents$603.8M14$523.5M15$751.3M16$757.4M17$566M17
Diluted shares57,26457,45556,37755,93756,561

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$372,364.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8,644.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$16,601.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$95,863.4

10 shares is a claim on $372,364.17 of net worth that earned you $8,644.47 and generated $16,601.19 of cash last year, against $95,863.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 3%FY24 -0%FY25 3%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8,958 and $99,432.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$99,432.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$93.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$54,546.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$93.9M
Earnings Power Value
$8,958
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$48.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$848.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $54,546.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$24,140.3
Base20.0%$54,546.77
Bull20.0%$54,546.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-127842 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038999 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-127842 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038999 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-127842 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038999 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-127842 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038999 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-127842 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-038999 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076528 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)