MeritValue

Rafael Holdings, Inc.

RFLdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Rafael Holdings, Inc. earns about -61% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 78% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$802,0001$410,0002$279,0003$637,0004$30,0005
Net income−$23.1M6−$124.7M7−$1.88M8−$34.4M9−$30.5M9
Operating cash flow−$15.6M10−$26.1M11−$10.9M12−$7.8M13−$18.9M13
Capital expenditure$206,00014$2,00015—$143,00016$4,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.8M10−$26.1M11—−$7.95M13−$18.9M13
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.85M17$26.5M18$21.5M19$2.68M20$52.8M20
Diluted shares16.5M19.8M23.3M23.7M29.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.37
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $32.08 of net worth that earned you −$10.37 and generated −$6.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-61% avg · 5y
FY21 -16%FY22 -149%FY23 -9%FY24 -67%FY25 -62%

It earned an average -61% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+78% shares · 5y

Share count is up 78% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001213900-22-067711 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0001213900-23-081589 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001213900-24-110663 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2025-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001213900-22-067711 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0001213900-23-081589 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001213900-24-110663 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001213900-22-067711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0001213900-23-081589 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001213900-24-110663 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001213900-21-053306 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0001213900-23-081589 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0001213900-22-067711 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0001213900-23-081589 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001213900-24-110663 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-31 · accession 0001213900-25-103549 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)