MeritValue

RESIDEO TECHNOLOGIES, INC.

REZIdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RESIDEO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.61 and $95.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.85B1$6.37B2$6.24B3$6.76B3$7.47B3
Net income$242M4$283M5$210M6$116M6−$527M6
Operating cash flow$315M7$152M8$440M9$444M9−$1.14B9
Capital expenditure$63M10$85M11$105M12$80M12$116M12
Free cash flow (derived)$252M7$67M8$335M9$364M9−$1.25B9
Total debt$2.47B13$2.85B14$2.83B15$4B16$6.42B16
Cash & equivalents$775M17$326M18$636M19$692M20$661M20
Diluted shares148.0M149.0M148.0M149.0M149.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$195.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$35.37
Free cash flow it threw off
−$84.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$430.6

10 shares is a claim on $195.77 of net worth that earned you −$35.37 and generated −$84.09 of cash last year, against $430.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 5%FY23 3%FY24 2%FY25 -4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 159% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.61 and $95.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$95.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$335M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$34.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$335M
Earnings Power Value
$14.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$210M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $34.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$6.5
Base20.0%$34.68
Bull20.0%$34.68

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001740332-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001740332-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001740332-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001740332-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)