MeritValue

Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.

REXRdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. earns about 3% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 66% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.48 and $9.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$468,0001$616,0002$682,0003$611,0003$589,0003
Net income$128.2M4$167.6M5$238M6$273.8M6$212M6
Operating cash flow$231.5M7$327.7M8$427.5M9$478.9M9$542.1M9
Capital expenditure$102.5M10$135.1M11$266.6M12$373.4M12$333.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$129M7$192.6M8$161M9$105.5M9$208.7M9
Total debt$1.4B13$1.94B14$2.23B15$3.35B16$3.25B16
Cash & equivalents$44M17$36.8M17$33.4M18$56M19$165.8M19
Diluted shares140.1M171.0M203.1M218.5M232.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$363.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$139.84

10 shares is a claim on $363.82 of net worth that earned you $9.12 and generated $8.97 of cash last year, against $139.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned about 3% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+66% shares · 5y

Share count is up 66% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 132% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.48 and $9.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$161M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$161M
Earnings Power Value
$9.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$212M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$3.38
Base7.7%$0.48
Bull12.7%$3.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001571283-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001571283-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001571283-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)