MeritValue

REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp

REXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 85% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.02 and $41.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$774.8M1$855M2$833.4M3$642.5M3$650.5M3
Net income$52.4M4$27.7M4$60.9M4$71.5M5$95.1M5
Operating cash flow$91.7M6$54.8M7$128M8$64.2M8$117.8M8
Capital expenditure$5.13M9$15.6M10$37.7M11$71.3M11$68.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$86.6M6$39.2M7$90.3M8−$7.13M8$49.4M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$229.8M12$69.6M13$223.4M13$196.3M14$188.7M14
Diluted shares17.9M17.6M35.2M35.3M33.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $183.91 of net worth that earned you $28.63 and generated $14.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY22 28%FY23 10%FY24 26%FY25 20%FY26 —

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+85% shares · 5y

Share count is up 85% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.02 and $41.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$49.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.0%
  • fcfBase$49.4M
Earnings Power Value
$19.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$60.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.93
Base8.0%$35.63
Bull13.0%$42.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000930413-24-001186 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000930413-25-001069 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000930413-26-000937 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000930413-24-001186 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000930413-26-000937 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000930413-24-001186 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000930413-25-001069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000930413-26-000937 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000930413-24-001186 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000930413-25-001069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000930413-26-000937 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000930413-24-001186 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000930413-25-001069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000930413-26-000937 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)