MeritValue

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.

REPXdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $54.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$151M1$321.7M2$375M3$410.2M3$392M3
Net income−$65.7M4$118M5$111.6M6$88.9M6$160.8M6
Operating cash flow$86.1M7$170.3M8$207.2M9$246.3M9$212.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—$112M10$711.9M11$539M12$495.7M12
Cash & equivalents$17.1M13$13.3M14$15.3M14$13.1M15$17.9M15
Diluted shares16.0M19.7M20.0M20.9M21.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$299.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.89
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$233.89

10 shares is a claim on $299.26 of net worth that earned you $75.89 last year, against $233.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 28%FY23 12%FY24 11%FY25 16%

It earned an average 11% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 343% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$54.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$111.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$71.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001001614-23-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001001614-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001001614-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001001614-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001001614-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001001614-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001001614-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001001614-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001001614-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001001614-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001001614-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001001614-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001628280-21-025024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001001614-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001001614-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)