MeritValue

Remitly Global, Inc.

RELYdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Remitly Global, Inc. earns about -21% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 258% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.38 and $11.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$458.6M1$653.6M2$944.3M3$1.26B3$1.64B3
Net income−$38.8M4−$114M5−$117.8M6−$37M6$67.9M6
Operating cash flow−$18.4M7−$108.7M8$66.8M9$111.6M9$325.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.96M10$3.68M11$2.86M12$6M12$29.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$20.3M7−$112.3M8$63.9M9$105.6M9$295.7M9
Total debt—$013$132.5M14$2.47M15$157.8M15
Cash & equivalents$403.3M16$300.6M17$323.7M18$368.1M18$542.4M18
Diluted shares60.7M167.8M180.8M194.6M217.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.25

10 shares is a claim on $39.93 of net worth that earned you $3.12 and generated $13.59 of cash last year, against $7.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-21% avg · 5y
FY21 -37%FY22 -49%FY23 -26%FY24 -8%FY25 14%

It earned about -21% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+258% shares · 5y

Share count is up 258% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.38 and $11.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$5.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.38
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.7
Base5.0%$10.38
Bull10.0%$12.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001782170-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001782170-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-009038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)